I read the following book written by Brother Haas.
I've learned how to make better decisions.
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work
Four issues that hinder better decision making
The theme of this book is “Better decision-making methods”.
According to this book, our brains are flawed with respect to decision-making, and we can't rely on expert analysis.
With that in mind, Brother Haas lists four enemies that interfere with better decision making.
- Narrow field of view
Humans tend to estimate the range of options more closely than they actually are.
Humans tend to miss out on other options because of their narrow field of view. - Confirmation bias
Humans tend to focus only on data that matches the idea once they think “this is what it is.”
If you do so, the data collected will be biased, and no matter how detailed the analysis is, time will be wasted. - Temporary emotion
The more difficult the situation, the more likely humans are to be controlled by temporary emotions.
In other words, it is easy to make wrong choices due to temporary emotions. - Overconfident
Most people believe that they can make the right decision rather than their actual ability.
It seems that you don't even realize that you are faced with any task.
If this happens, it is difficult to take measures against the problem.
“WRAP” process to make better decisions
Let ’s take a look at how to overcome the four challenges that hinder correct decisions.
Should I buy a new digital gadget for $ 198? Let ’s take the example of the problem I ’m currently facing.
- Widen your options
According to Brother Haas, the question “Would you buy a new $ 198 digital gadget?” Is wrong in the first place.
Because there are only two choices, “buy” and “do not buy”, the field of view automatically becomes obscured.
So, if you follow the technique suggested by Brothers Hawas, you can expand your options by translating it into the question “Would you use $ 198 for something else?”
For $ 198, you can buy more than 10 books and watch 10 movies.
By doing so, it can be considered that there is probably more effective use of money.
Of course, making the right choices doesn't always make the right decision.
However, Brother Haas says, “The failure rate is 52% when you decide with two choices, but if you expand your options, it will drop to 32%.” - Reality test your assumptions
When buying a new digital gadget, most people check reviews on various sites.
At this time, it is confirmation bias that only reviews that only write good things are seen.
For example, if it's an Amazon review, try reading a review with a rating of 1.
Even if it's a terrible review, you might get some hints.
In addition, it is also introduced as a good way to objectively imagine “how many people who bought this gadget have actually been on a diet and are healthy?” . - Attain distance before deciding
Even if you think you want a digital gadget with a cool design, don't buy it right away, but take a moment.
Then imagine if your best friend would be interested in fitness and would recommend this gadget.
Then you can reevaluate digital gadgets objectively. - Prepare to be wrong
Even if you try the countermeasures that have been introduced so far, it is often the case that the decision fails.
Therefore, it is better to assume “worst result” and “best result” in advance.
Because you can think of the expected value you get when you pay $ 198 based on that.
For me now, the “worst result” is “to be unhealthy than it is now”.
So, at least the choice of paying $ 198 for a digital gadget is not “worst”.
Summary
As expected, Brother Haas has put together a lot of research practically so far. I think it ’s really amazing.
Thanks to you, we only know the WRAP process and can guide you in making decisions.
In addition to the techniques discussed above, this book covers a variety of techniques, so please read it if you are interested.
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work